Mexican Dry Bean Production Numbers Revised

USDBC’s last dry bean production survey in Mexico earlier this month confirms that both drought and inclement weather in the form of Hurricane Willa, have further lowered yields and quality. In our first production assessment in October, we estimated that Mexico’s total bean production in the 2018 Spring Summer Cycle could reach 638,388 MT, 33.2% shorter than SIAP-SAGARPA’s (Mexican Government) official estimates. As harvesting progressed, lack of precipitation during the development stage resulted in a smaller pod density and a reduction in planting areas. Subsequently, Hurricane Willa brought excess humidity, affecting the grains with spots, fungus and bean perforation mainly in Chihuahua, Durango and Zacatecas.

Mexico Dry Bean Production, Source: USDBC/CASSMA

After analyzing bean samples collected in the fields, we saw first-hand that the range of production loss could be between 10 to 22%, which could result in slow trading, lower prices and greater imports. We estimate that the Mexican 2018 Spring-Summer Bean Production will reach 579,392 MT, 9.2% lower than the October estimates, 31.3% shorter than SIAP-SAGARPA’s numbers, and 34.3% shorter than the historic averages.  Mexican bean production in the 2017/2018 agricultural year, Fall-Winter + 2018 Spring-Summer will be 917,471 MT which represents a reduction of 6% from the October estimates, 22.3% shorter than SIAP-SAGARPA’s numbers, and 19.3% shorter than the historic average production. We expect a good year ahead and are also optimistic that the new US/Mexico/Canada Agreement – formerly NAFTA (USMCA), will further solidify our strong partnerships with the Mexican trade. We look forward to the annual Mexico Bean Congress this February in Cancun. The full late harvest report is available on USDBC’s members only website.