“High Stocks, Low Prices in Brazil”

by Ellen Levinson

According to CONAB’s (Brazilian National Supply Company) October 2017 Crop Survey, Brazil’s 2016/17 (Sep. through Aug.) dry bean production totaled 3,399,000 MT, with the following breakdown by bean class: colored beans, of which about 98% are carioca beans (2,178,000 MT); black beans (508,000 MT); and cowpeas (713,000 MT). Total production was down by 23% compared to 2015/16. Brazil’s harvest of the first crop of the 2017/18 season started at the end of October. Inventories were already high and there was little buying interest. As a result, in October 2017, wholesale carioca bean prices continued to decline. At the Sao Paulo Bolsinha, sellers were seeking prices of 100-130 Brazilian Reais/60 kg bag for carioca beans, equivalent to about US$ 508-660/MT.

High stocks and low prices of carioca beans puts downward pressure on black bean prices. In October 2017, black bean prices remained low, ranging from $680 to $750/MT at the border with Argentina. Packagers reported that they expect Argentina will be able to supply the country’s black bean needs through the end of the year. For the first crop of 2017/18, CONAB estimates plantings will be down to slightly over 1 million hectares (compared to 1,447,300 hectares for the first crop of 2016/17). CONAB’s preliminary production estimate for the first dry bean crop of 2017/18 is 1,253,200 MT; that would be down from the first crop of 2016/17, which came in at 1,360,600 MT. However, farmers and packagers questioned those predictions. Soy and corn prices are also low, so there is little interest in producing those crops instead of beans. USDBC continues to work to create export opportunities in this new market that has just recently become familiar with the quality of U.S. dry beans and continues to import on a seasonal basis around this time of year.